Question: Can an issuer ever confirm selectively a forecast it has previously made to the public without triggering the rule's public reporting requirements?

Answer: Yes. In assessing the materiality of an issuer's confirmation of its own forecast, the issuer should consider whether the confirmation conveys any information above and beyond the original forecast and whether that additional information is itself material. That may depend on, among other things, the amount of time that has elapsed between the original forecast and the confirmation (or the amount of time elapsed since the last public confirmation, if applicable). For example, a confirmation of expected quarterly earnings made near the end of a quarter might convey information about how the issuer actually performed. In that respect, the inference a reasonable investor may draw from such a confirmation may differ significantly from the inference he or she may have drawn from the original forecast early in the quarter. The materiality of a confirmation also may depend on, among other things, intervening events. For example, if it is clear that the issuer's forecast is highly dependent on a particular customer and the customer subsequently announces that it is ceasing operations, a confirmation by the issuer of a prior forecast may be material. 

We note that a statement by an issuer that it has "not changed," or that it is "still comfortable with," a prior forecast is no different than a confirmation of a prior forecast. Moreover, under certain circumstances, an issuer's reference to a prior forecast may imply that the issuer is confirming the forecast. If, when asked about a prior forecast, the issuer does not want to confirm it, the issuer may simply wish to say "no comment." If an issuer wishes to refer back to the prior estimate without implicitly confirming it, the issuer should make clear that the prior estimate was as of the date it was given and is not being updated as of the time of the subsequent statement. [Aug. 14, 2009]