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International Practices Task Force
      DOCUMENT FOR DISCUSSION
        Monitoring Inflation in Certain Countries
November 9, 2023
The Center for Audit Quality (CAQ) SEC Regulations Committee and its International Practices Task Force (IPTF) periodically accumulates and discusses certain inflation data. This document represents the accumulation of information that was used to facilitate a discussion among IPTF members, but does not represent formal views or conclusions of the IPTF or its members. This document has not been considered and acted on by senior technical committees of the CAQ or the American Institute of CPAs (AICPA) and does not represent an official position of the CAQ or the AICPA. As with all other documents issued by the CAQ, this document is not considered authoritative and users are urged to refer directly to applicable authoritative pronouncements for the text of the technical literature. This document does not purport to be applicable or sufficient to the circumstances of any work performed by practitioners and is not intended to be a substitute for professional judgment applied by practitioners. 

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Introduction
Registrants are responsible for monitoring inflation in countries in which they have operations. Under U.S. GAAP (ASC 830), the determination of a highly inflationary economy begins by calculating the cumulative inflation rate for the three-year period that precedes the beginning of the reporting period, including interim reporting periods. If that calculation results in a cumulative inflation rate in excess of 100%, the economy should be considered highly-inflationary in all instances. However, if that calculation results in the cumulative rate being less than 100%, historical inflation rate trends and other pertinent factors should be considered to determine whether such information suggests that classification of the economy as highly inflationary is appropriate. Registrants should be especially prudent when monitoring inflation data in countries where there is a concern about the reliability of the inflation data.
Additionally, significant professional judgment is required when determining if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the country should no longer be classified as highly inflationary.
In an effort to facilitate greater consistency, the CAQ International Practices Task Force (the “Task Force”) developed a framework for compiling inflation data to assist registrants in monitoring inflation statistics in connection with their determination of the inflationary status of countries in which they have operations. The information herein may be helpful to management in applying ASC 830, in conjunction with its internal controls over financial reporting to reach a conclusion on whether a country’s economy should be considered highly-inflationary.
The Task Force compiled cumulative inflation data by country (for those countries for which the International Monetary Fund [IMF] publishes data), and then categorized the countries based on their cumulative inflation rates and the implementation guidance in ASC 830. (See the Appendix for a detailed description of how inflation rates are calculated.) In addition, the Task Force identified countries where projected cumulative inflation rates would have been categorized into categories considering the guidance in ASC 830 and in circumstances where there was not consistent reliable data.
The categories, the countries in each of the categories for this period, and reference to the page in this Document where inflation data is provided, are as follows:
1a. Countries with three-year cumulative inflation rates exceeding 100% (ASC 830, Case A)
Argentina
4
Ethiopia
4
Ghana
4 Moved from Category 1.b
Iran
4
Lebanon
5
Sierra Leone
5 Moved from Category 1.b
Sudan
6
Suriname
6
Turkey
6
Venezuela
6
Yemen
6 Moved from Category 2
Zimbabwe
7
1b. Countries with projected three-year cumulative inflation rates greater than 100% in the current year
Haiti
7 Moved from Category 1.a
2. Countries with three-year cumulative inflation rates exceeding 100% in recent years, but with three-year cumulative inflation rates between 70% and 100% in the last calendar year (ASC 830, Case B)
South Sudan
8 Moved from Category 1.a
3. Countries with recent three-year cumulative inflation rates exceeding 100% after a spike in inflation in a discrete period (ASC 830, Case C)
None
4. Countries with three-year cumulative inflation rates between 70% and 100% in the current year, or with a significant (25% or more) increase in inflation during the last calendar year, or a significant increase in projected inflation in the current year, or with projected three-year cumulative inflation rates greater than 100% in the next year
Angola
10
Burundi
10
Egypt
10
Lao P.D.R
10
Malawi
10
Moldova
10
Nigeria
10 New in October 2023
Pakistan
11
Sao Tome and Principe
11
Sri Lanka
11 Moved from Category 1.b
Ukraine
11
There may be additional countries with three-year cumulative inflation rates exceeding 100% or that should be monitored which are not included in the analysis because the sources used to compile this list do not include inflation data for all countries or current inflation data, for example, Eritrea, Syria and Afghanistan. Numerous other countries that are not members of the IMF are not included in the WEO Reports.
The data referred to herein is derived from the IMF World Economic Outlook Report Database – October 2023 (“IMF WEO Report”), unless otherwise indicated. The IMF WEO Report presents inflation data on a calendar year basis. Data presented in the IMF WEO Report as estimated is identified with an “*”.
While the below data may be a useful resource for registrants, management should have adequate controls to independently verify and analyze any data on which they are basing a conclusion about an economy’s highly inflationary status.
Below is a discussion of the countries included in each of the above categories.
1a. Countries with three-year cumulative inflation rates exceeding 100%
Case A in ASC 830-10-55-24 provides an example when the three-year cumulative rate exceeds 100% requiring a company to classify the economy as highly inflationary.
According to data obtained from the IMF WEO Report and other sources identified below, the following countries have three-year cumulative inflation rates exceeding 100%:
Argentina
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
54%
36%
51%
95%
136%
70%
Cumulative 3-year rate
216%
300%
593%
678%
Ethiopia
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
20%
18%
35%
34%
25%
18%
Cumulative 3-year rate
91%
114%
125%
97%
Ghana - Moved from Category 1.b
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
8%
10%
13%
54%
31%
15%
Cumulative 3-year rate
34%
92%
128%
133%
Alternative Index Considered
Index Considered
As of 12/31/22
As of 03/31/23
As of 06/30/23
As of 09/30/23
YTD Consumer Price Index
54%
2%
13%
19%
Cumulative 3-year rate Index
92%
91%
99.5%
110%
The October 2023 IMF WEO report projects three-year cumulative inflation will increase to 128% by the end of 2023. Further data from the Ghanian Statistic Department (Source Ghana Statistics website) shows that as of September 2023 three-year cumulative inflation has already exceeded 100%.
Iran
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
22%
49%
34%
54%
40%
25%
Cumulative 3-year rate
144%
207%
190%
170%
Additional Information/Observations/Questions
Note that the actual percentages for annual and three-year cumulative inflation for 2022 have been revised since the April 2023 IMF WEO Report from 50% and 200% to 54% and 207% in the October 2023 IMF WEO Report, respectively.
Lebanon
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
7%
146%
224%
122%
N/A
N/A
Cumulative 3-year rate
753%
1671%
N/A
N/A
Additional Information/Observations/Questions
Note the actual percentages for annual and three-year cumulative inflation rate for 2021 and 2022 have been revised since the April 2023 IMF WEO Report. The April IMF WEO Report did not provide any estimates for annual and three-year cumulative inflation rate for 2021 and 2022, which have been revised to 224% and 753% for 2021 and 122% and 1671% for 2022 in the October 2023 IMF WEO Report, respectively.
Sierra Leone – Moved from Category 1.b
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
14%
10%
18%
37%
38%
22%
Cumulative 3-year rate
48%
79%
123%
130%
Alternative Index Considered
Index Considered
As of 12/31/22
As of 03/31/23
As of 06/30/23
As of 08/31/23
YTD inflation rate
37%
12%
25%
35%
Cumulative 3-year rate
79%
88%
104%
114%
Additional Information/Observations/Questions
The October 2023 IMF WEO report projects three-year cumulative inflation will exceed 100% by the end of 2023. Further the inflation data from the Sierra Leone National Statistics department shows that by August 2023 the three-year cumulative inflation has already exceeded 100%.
Sudan
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
57%
269%
318%
87%
238%
127%
Cumulative 3-year rate
2325%
2793%
2550%
1341%
Suriname
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
4%
61%
61%
55%
40%
20%
Cumulative 3-year rate
169%
299%
248%
160%
Turkey
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
12%
15%
36%
64%
64%
54%
Cumulative 3-year rate
74%
156%
267%
316%
Venezuela
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
9585%
2960%
686%
234%
250%
230%
Cumulative 3-year rate
2330K%
80K%
9K%
3.7K%
Additional Information/Observations/Questions
Note that the actual percentages for annual and three-year cumulative inflation for 2022 have been revised since the April 2023 IMF WEO report from 310% and 98K% to 234% and 80K%, respectively.
Yemen – Moved from Category 2
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
1%
43%
50%
-3%
20%
15%
Cumulative 3-year rate
118%
110%
76%
34%
Additional Information/Observations/Questions
In the April 2023 IMF Outlook the 2021 and 2022 data were estimated and resulted in cumulative inflation to be below 100% as of the end of 2022. The actual estimated three-year cumulative rate for 2021 and 2022 is 118% and 110%, respectively. The October 2023 IMF Outlook shows actual inflation data for 2021, and 2022 that shows Yemen reaching three-year cumulative inflation over 100% in both 2021 and 2022. Therefore, Yemen is included in this category in this report. However, it is worth noting that, as showed in the table above, the projected three-year cumulative rate for 2023 and 2024 is expected to decrease below 100%. However, we note that no official data exists for 2023 inflation.
Note that the actual percentages for annual and three-year cumulative inflation for 2020, 2021 and 2022 have been revised since the April 2023 IMF WEO report. Below are the previous percentages reported in April 2023 for comparison purposes to the October 2023 IMF WEO report percentages presented above:
ACTUAL (per April 2023 Report)
Calendar year
2020
2021
2022
Annual inflation rate
33%
29%
14%
Cumulative 3-year rate
73%
95%
Zimbabwe
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
521%
349%
61%
244%
396%
190%
Cumulative 3-year rate
4379%
2379%
2642%
4849%
1b. Countries with projected three-year cumulative inflation rates greater than 100% in the current year
According to data obtained from the IMF WEO Report, the following country has a projected three-year cumulative inflation rate greater than 100% in the current year but has not yet exceeded 100% as of the most recent year-end and any subsequent comparable monthly data available as of the meeting date. Under ASC 830-10-45-12, an economy must be classified as highly inflationary when the cumulative three-year rate exceeds 100%. However, if that calculation results in the cumulative rate being less than 100%, historical inflation rate trends (increasing or decreasing) and other pertinent economic factors should be considered to determine whether such information suggests that classification of the economy as highly inflationary is appropriate sooner. ASC 830-10-45-13 states that the definition of a highly inflationary economy is necessarily an arbitrary decision requiring judgment and in some instances, the trend of inflation might be as important as the absolute rate.
Registrants should have appropriate controls in place to monitor more current reported inflation data and consider other pertinent economic indicators to determine if and when the following country should be considered highly inflationary:
Haiti – Moved from Category 1.a
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
20%
25%
13%
39%
30%
13%
Cumulative 3-year rate
69%
96%
104%
103%
Additional Information/Observations/Questions
Inflation data from the April 2023 and October 2023 IMF WEO Reports show the three-years cumulative inflation just under 100% at December 2022 while showing the three-year cumulative inflation is expected to be over 100% for 2023 and 2024. However, we note that local data from the Haitian Institute for Statistics and Information (IHSI) published by the Bank of Republic of Haiti shows that the three-year cumulative inflation as of December 2022 was at 120% remaining above 100% through September 2023 the most recent data available. Given the discrepancies in the data, entities should apply judgment as to when and if during 2023 the three-year cumulative inflation may have exceeded 100%.
2. Countries with three-year cumulative inflation rates exceeding 100% in recent years, but with three-year cumulative inflation rates between 70% and 100% in the last calendar year
Case B in ASC 830-10-55-25 provides an illustrative example of a country where an economy continues to be classified as highly inflationary even though the three-year cumulative rate is below 100% because there is no evidence to suggest that the drop below 100% is other than temporary and annual inflation has been high on a consistent basis.
Countries in this category should be monitored by management, who should apply judgment in determining when there is sufficient evidence to conclude the country should no longer be classified as highly inflationary.
South Sudan
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
30%
88%
2%
-13%
46%
6%
Cumulative 3-year rate
221%
150%
67%
30%
34%
Additional Information/Observations/Questions
Please note that there is no published/reliable local data for South Sudan as government does not report information. The information published by the IMF through their WEO Report is based on estimates rather than actual data. The three-year cumulative inflation rate was 150% in 2021 and based on the April 2023 IMF WEO report the three-year cumulative inflation rate was 172% in 2022. However, the October 2023 IMF WEO Report revised the prior year data to 67%, which is below 100% three-years cumulative inflation. Due to the lack of published/reliable local data and due to the material revisions made to the 2022 inflation data, we caution entities when assessing whether and when South Sudan should no longer be considered a highly inflationary economy in 2023 or 2024.
Please note that the actual percentages for annual and three-year cumulative inflation at the end of calendar 2022 have been revised since the April 2023 IMF WEO Report from 41% and 172% in April 2023 report to -13% and 67% in the October 2023 IMF WEO report, respectively.
3. Countries with recent three-year cumulative inflation rates exceeding 100% after a spike in inflation in a discrete period
Case C in ASC 830-10-55-26 provides an illustrative example where a country’s economy no longer exceeds 100% for the cumulative three-year rate and the classification as highly inflationary resulted from an isolated spike in annual inflation. ASC 830-10-55-26 states that this country’s economy should no longer be classified as highly inflationary.
According to data obtained from the IMF WEO Report, the following countries three-year cumulative inflation rates have exceeded 100% after a spike in inflation in a discrete period. Countries in this category should be monitored by management, who should apply judgment in determining when there is sufficient evidence to conclude whether the country should be, or should no longer be, classified as highly inflationary:
There are no countries in this category.
4. Countries with a) projected three-year cumulative inflation rates between 70% and 100% in the current year, b) with a significant (25% or more) increase in inflation during the last calendar year, c) a significant increase in projected inflation in the current year, d) with projected three-year cumulative inflation rates greater than 100% in the next year, or e) included in the prior edition of this report and has not experienced a significant decrease
According to data obtained from the IMF WEO Report, the following countries have projected three-year cumulative inflation rates between 70% and 100% in the current year, or a significant (25% or more) increase in inflation during the last calendar year, or a significant increase in projected inflation in the current year, or projected three-year cumulative inflation rates greater than 100% in the next year.
Registrants should have appropriate controls in place to monitor more current reported inflation data and consider other pertinent economic indicators to determine if and when the following countries should be considered highly inflationary:
Angola
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
17%
25%
27%
14%
17%
26%
Cumulative 3-year rate
86%
81%
69%
68%
Burundi
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
5%
8%
10%
27%
12%
22%
Cumulative 3-year rate
24%
50%
56%
74%
Egypt
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
9%
6%
5%
13%
36%
26%
Cumulative 3-year rate
21%
25%
61%
93%
Lao P.D.R.
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
6%
3%
5%
39%
17%
3%
Cumulative 3-year rate
15%
51%
71%
68%
Malawi
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
12%
8%
12%
25%
29%
15%
Cumulative 3-year rate
34%
51%
80%
86%
Moldova
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
8%
0%
14%
30%
5%
5%
Cumulative 3-year rate
23%
49%
56%
44%
Nigeria - New in October 2023
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
12%
16%
16%
21%
31%
15%
Cumulative 3-year rate
50%
62%
83%
83%
Pakistan
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
8%
9%
10%
21%
29%
18%
Cumulative 3-year rate
29%
44%
72%
84%
Sao Tome and Principe
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
8%
9%
9%
25%
15%
7%
Cumulative 3-year rate
29%
50%
58%
55%
Sri Lanka – Moved from Category 1.b
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
5%
4%
11%
55%
N/A
N/A
Cumulative 3-year rate
22%
81%
N/A
N/A
The October 2023 IMF WEO report does not include projected inflation for 2023 and 2024. However, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka publishes monthly inflation data. The Central Bank data states that the National CPI for the first ten months of the 2023 calendar year stands at 1.6%. Based on a linear extrapolation, the projected inflation for 2023 could be estimated at approximately 2%, resulting in a projected 2023 three-years cumulative inflation of approximately 83%.
Ukraine
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
Calendar year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual inflation rate
4%
5%
10%
27%
16%
10%
Cumulative 3-year rate
20%
46%
61%
61%
Appendix: Description of how inflation rates are calculated
For all countries, data is extracted from the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) website. IMF data is extracted from www.imf.org as follows:
  • On the home page, select the “Data” tab, and then click “World Economic Outlook Databases” link.
  • Select “By Countries (country-level data)”.
  • Select “All Countries”, then click the “continue” button.
  • Under the “Monetary” subject header, select “Inflation”, “end of period consumer prices” (both the index and percent change); then click the “continue” button.
  • Select a date range (e.g., 2018-2023); click “prepare report” and a table is produced with the data; click the “download” link to export to excel. The data table includes the actual and estimated end of period price indices for each country.
The IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) report estimates inflation when actual inflation data has not been obtained. The text of the report describes the assumptions and conventions used for the projections in the WEO. The data that are estimated are highlighted. While the IMF data has limitations (projected inflation data and varying dates through which actual data is included in the table), the calculated three-year cumulative inflation allows us to determine which country’s calculations require further analysis.
Note: From time to time the WEO refines or updates previously reported actual Consumer Price Index (herein referred to as “Index” or “CPI”) data for certain countries.
Using the downloaded table, the three-year cumulative inflation rate is calculated as follows (assuming the current year is end of year 2023): (2023 End of Year CPI – 2020 End of Year CPI) / 2020 End of Year CPI.
It should be noted that the IMF inflation data used to summarize inflation could be different from the inflation data reported by the respective countries’ central banks or governments. The Task Force has not performed procedures to identify any potential differences. Accordingly, this summarized IMF information should be supplemented, to the extent considered necessary, with other pertinent information that may be available.
For registrants that need additional information to monitor inflation for operations in certain countries, it should be noted that annual or month-end CPI information can be obtained from some countries’ central bank or government websites or other publicly available information but that data may differ from the inflation data reported by the IMF and may need to be converted because of differences in presentation or other reasons (for example, some countries have reset their base index back to 100 during recent years). While inflation data published by a central bank or government is often more current than the IMF data, each country releases its inflation data at different times and inflation data for some countries may not be otherwise publicly available.
About the Center for Audit Quality
The Center for Audit Quality is an autonomous public policy organization dedicated to enhancing investor confidence and public trust in the global capital markets. The CAQ fosters high-quality performance by public company auditors; convenes and collaborates with other stakeholders to advance the discussion of critical issues that require action and intervention; and advocates policies and standards that promote public company auditors’ objectivity, effectiveness, and responsiveness to dynamic market conditions. Based in Washington, DC, the CAQ is affiliated with the American Institute of CPAs. For more information, visit www.thecaq.org
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